Heavily Dem-Skewed Poll Shows Obama Losing
I don’t normally comment on polls, but this one is well worth taking apart:
For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP’s monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race. Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.
Obama’s approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he’s doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks. Republicans dislike him at this point to a greater extent than Democrats like him and that will be a problem for him moving forward if it persists.
Once you pull up the .pdf of the full results, including the questions asked, it gets a lot more interesting.
To start with, the self-described partisan split (Q16) is 42% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 25% Independent/Other, or in shorthand, 42D/33R/25I. Given that CNN’s 2008 exit polling gives a breakdown of 39D/32R/29I, this constitutes a 9 point advantage for the Democrats, even after the shellacking that the Party of the Donkey took in the 2010 midterms.
Question 13 is also interesting… they actually asked who people voted for in 2008, and they managed to get 47% Obama voters and only 44% McCain voters.
Yet even with this wildly skewed sample that favors Obama, he doesn’t even break even on approval… he’s underwater by 2 points, 46/48.
This is definitely bad news for Mr. Obama.